Now the company is reportedly weighing delaying until 2027,
with the volatility left by SpaceX cited as the reason. It is worth asking whether
that is really it, because several signals point elsewhere.
The valuation problem
Sam Altman wanted to reach the market at a valuation close to a trillion
dollars. The options his advisers reportedly put forward are the usual two when
the number does not work:
- Wait longer and try to let revenue justify the figure.
- List on schedule, at a lower valuation.
The second does not appeal. And there is the first real clue: if a company
prefers waiting a year to accepting a lower number, it is because it believes the
lower number would stick as a permanent reference.
The question the market started asking
While OpenAI kept investing billions in data centres and compute, the market
began asking a very simple question:
is revenue growing as fast as spending?
It is the same question that came up with SpaceX and its AI division. Technical
capability is no longer enough: you have to show the capability turns into
money.
And the competition changed
| Front | What changed |
|---|
| Chinese models | Started gaining ground at far lower prices |
| Google | Accelerated Gemini's growth |
| Anthropic | Kept winning enterprise contracts |
| ChatGPT | Stopped growing at the explosive pace expected and is seeking advertising and commerce revenue |
There is one more element, and it is among the least discussed: regulatory
restrictions on releasing the most advanced models. Each restriction means more
compliance cost, more delay and less speed turning innovation into revenue.
What this says about the whole sector
The conclusion is not about OpenAI. It is that the market began distinguishing
between having the best technology and having the best business, and those two
things are not always in the same company.
If this holds, the sector's next listing becomes the test that defines what this
generation of companies is really worth — and it will not be a test of technical
capability, but of margins.
Frequently asked questions
Why would OpenAI delay its IPO to 2027?
The stated argument is the volatility left behind by SpaceX’s debut. Underneath is something more concrete: Sam Altman wanted to list near a $1 trillion valuation, and if the company would rather wait a year than accept a lower number, it is because it believes that number would stick as a permanent reference.
What question did the market start asking OpenAI?
Whether revenue is growing as fast as spending. It is the same question that came up with SpaceX’s AI division: proving technical capability is no longer enough — you have to prove that capability turns into money.
How did OpenAI’s competition change?
Chinese models gained ground at far lower prices, Google accelerated Gemini’s growth, Anthropic kept winning enterprise contracts, and ChatGPT stopped growing at the expected pace. On top of that, regulatory restrictions on the most advanced models add compliance cost and delay.
